Iron Ore Falls Below $100 for First Time Since March as China Slowdown and Rising Supply Weigh on Market

Iron ore prices slipped below the $100-per-ton threshold for the first time since March on Wednesday, as signs of weakening demand in China coincided with growing global supplies, adding pressure to one of the world’s most closely watched industrial commodities.

Iron ore futures traded on the Singapore Exchange fell 2.3% to $98.90 per ton, marking a second consecutive day of declines and reflecting increasing concerns about the balance between supply growth and slowing consumption.

The decline followed the release of fresh economic data from China showing that steel production contracted again in May, while fixed-asset investment and consumer spending weakened to their lowest levels since the pandemic. Because China accounts for more than half of global steel production, shifts in its industrial activity often have a significant impact on iron ore demand.

According to Citic researcher Hu Yanbing, elevated inventories and abundant supply are becoming increasingly difficult for the market to absorb at current price levels. Hu also noted that recent Chinese economic indicators have fallen short of expectations, highlighting the sensitivity of ferrous metals markets to domestic economic conditions.

Supply-side developments are adding to the pressure. Market participants continue to monitor the gradual ramp-up of production at the massive Simandou mining project in Guinea, one of the world’s largest untapped iron ore deposits. Additional output from the project is expected to increase global seaborne supply over the coming years, potentially reshaping trade flows across the sector.

Energy markets may also be contributing to the move. Recent declines in crude oil prices, partly linked to expectations surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, have reduced freight costs, improving transportation economics for bulk commodity shipments and supporting supply availability.

The latest pullback places renewed focus on major iron ore producers, including BHP, Rio Tinto, Vale and Fortescue, whose earnings remain closely tied to iron ore market dynamics.

While prices remain above the lows recorded during previous commodity downturns, the move below $100 per ton underscores growing investor concerns that slowing industrial activity in China and increasing supply growth could continue to weigh on the market during the second half of 2026.