Interest rate uncertainty, credit quality and tariffs top concerns
Nearly three-quarters of bankers said the U.S. is either already in a recession or will enter one within the next year, according to a survey of more than 400 bankers released today by fintech IntraFi.
Ten percent of bankers said the economy is already in recession, while another 24% predicted it would happen within the next six months. Bankers listed several areas of concern, including 52% who cited interest rate uncertainty, 39% who foresee potential credit quality deterioration and 38% who raised the possible negative economic impact from new U.S. tariffs.
“Bankers are increasingly nervous that a recession will happen soon,” said Mark Jacobsen, CEO and Cofounder of IntraFi. “The uncertainty around a number of key economic issues is driving that fear.”
Bankers’ expectations for overall economic conditions over the next year reflected their growing fears of a recession. Since the last quarterly survey, there was a 24 percentage-point increase in bankers who expected overall economic conditions to worsen.
Asked specifically about the impact of new tariffs on bank customers, 12% said they would have a significant negative impact, while 59% said they may create moderate challenges for customers in industries like manufacturing, agriculture and retail. Twenty-two percent said they would either have no direct impact or only a minor impact, while 7% said new tariffs could benefit some customers by encouraging domestic production.
The survey also underscored the ongoing antipathy banks have for credit unions. Despite a record number of banks being acquired by credit unions last year, 55% of those surveyed say that if their bank were up for sale, they would not sell to a credit union, even if it was the best offer.
Other Highlights
- Loan Demand is softening. The percentage of respondents who anticipate loan demand to increase in the next 12 months dropped 16 points from the previous quarter to 39%.
- Funding Costs will decrease over the next year according to 67% of respondents.
- Deposit Competition held steady or increased according to over 80% of respondents, with 88% anticipating it to increase or stay the same in the year ahead.
- Access to Capital remains constant. The number of bankers (75%) who believe it will remain the same for the next year was identical to the number who said so in the final quarter of 2024.
IntraFi’s Q1 2025 Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey garnered responses from CEOs, presidents, and CFOs at 427 unique banks across the country.
