Consultancy Reveals Energy Leaders Are Divided On Transition Investments And Timing Of Peak Oil

A new study by Bain & Company reveals that global energy and natural resources leaders are increasingly divided over the future of transition investments and when global oil demand is expected to peak.

The survey, which gathered insights from more than 800 executives across oil and gas, utilities, mining, chemicals, and agribusiness, shows that despite growing decarbonization efforts, economic fundamentals continue to drive capital allocation decisions.

According to the report, most executives still expect global oil demand to rise over the next decade. However, views on peak oil vary significantly by region. In Europe, half of oil and gas executives believe demand could peak before 2035, while 41% of North American executives do not expect a peak until after 2050.

Energy Transition Paths Are Diverging

The findings highlight a growing divide between companies that have already committed substantial capital to transition-related investments — and remain committed — and those that are beginning to pull back.

In Europe, more than half of companies allocate over 20% of their capital to transition initiatives. In contrast, only about a quarter of companies in North America and other regions follow a similar approach, reflecting differences in policy support, energy security priorities, and geopolitical dynamics.

At the same time, there is increasing consensus that global net-zero targets may be pushed beyond 2070, signaling a slower transition trajectory than previously anticipated.

Four Key Trends Shaping The Sector

The report identifies four major forces redefining the industry landscape:

1. Geopolitics is reshaping investment decisions in real time
Executives are increasingly prioritizing local investments amid regulatory uncertainty and global tensions.

2. A new wave of restructuring is expected
Two-thirds of executives anticipate increased divestments, consolidation, and closures across the sector in the next two years.

3. AI adoption is rising, but returns remain limited
While experimentation is widespread, only a quarter of companies have successfully scaled AI with measurable impact.

4. AI-driven energy demand is accelerating pragmatic investment decisions
Utilities are prioritizing the most “bankable” solutions, including energy storage, extending asset lifespans, and expanding infrastructure.

Capital Discipline Remains Central

The study reinforces that, despite sustainability pressures, investment decisions continue to be anchored in economic viability, regulatory clarity, and return on capital.

Technologies such as energy storage, transition materials, and advanced nuclear are seen as the most promising over the next decade, while low-carbon hydrogen and direct air capture face more skepticism.

A Transition Without Consensus

According to Bain, the findings reflect a more complex, fragmented, and uneven energy transition than previously expected.

Rather than a linear shift toward decarbonization, the sector is evolving across multiple paths — shaped by geopolitics, policy frameworks, and, ultimately, capital discipline.