US Job Growth Expected to Slow in April as Labor Market Shows Signs of Gradual Cooling

The United States economy likely added 62,000 jobs in April 2026, according to market expectations ahead of the upcoming employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

While the figure would represent a notable slowdown from March’s 178,000 payroll increase — the strongest monthly gain since December 2024 — it would also mark the first consecutive monthly increase in employment in nearly a year, signaling that the labor market remains resilient despite broader economic moderation.

Economists expect healthcare and social assistance to remain the primary engines of hiring growth, while manufacturing payrolls are also projected to post another monthly increase. Government employment, however, is anticipated to decline.

The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.3%, reinforcing expectations that labor market conditions are softening gradually rather than deteriorating sharply.

Meanwhile, average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month, slightly above the 0.2% gain recorded in March. On an annual basis, wage growth is projected to accelerate to 3.8%, up from 3.5% previously, potentially adding another layer of complexity for Federal Reserve policymakers monitoring inflationary pressures.

Analysts also note that it remains too early for any potential economic fallout from the ongoing U.S.-Israeli conflict involving Iran to materially appear in labor market data, though investors continue to monitor geopolitical risks and their implications for energy prices, supply chains, and consumer sentiment.

The employment report is expected to provide additional signals on the pace of the U.S. economic slowdown, as investors assess labor market resilience alongside persistent geopolitical tensions and tighter financial conditions.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics