The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US inched down by 0.1% in December 2024 to 101.6 (2016=100), after an upwardly revised increase of 0.4% in November. The LEI declined by 1.3% over the second half of 2024, slightly less than its 1.7% decline over the first half of the last year.
“The Index fell slightly in December failing to sustain November’s increase,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Low consumer confidence about future business conditions, still relatively weak manufacturing orders, an increase in initial claims for unemployment, and a decline in building permits contributed to the decline. Still, half of the 10 components of the index contributed positively in December. Moreover, the LEI’s six-month and twelve-month growth rates were less negative, signaling fewer headwinds to US economic activity ahead. Nonetheless, we expect growth momentum to remain strong to start the year and US real GDP to expand by 2.3% in 2025.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US rose by 0.4% in December 2024 to 114.1 (2016=100), following a 0.2% increase in November. As a result, the CEI increased by 0.9% in the six-month period ending December 2024, slightly higher than its 0.7% growth over the previous six months. The CEI’s four component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. They all improved in December, with the largest positive contribution coming from industrial production, which contributed negatively in three out of the past six months. This was followed by personal income less transfer payments, payroll employment, and manufacturing and trade sales.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the US increased by 0.1% to 118.5 (2016=100) in December 2024, after an increase of 0.2% in November. However, the LAG’s six-month growth rate remained negative at 0.5% over the second half of 2024, a partial reversal from its 0.8% increase over the first half of 2024.
The next release is scheduled for Thursday, February 20, 2025, at 10 A.M. ET.
Note: This month’s release of the composite economic indexes incorporates annual benchmark revisions, which bring them up to date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
For more information, please visit conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators/ or email us at indicators@tcb.org
