The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence™ in collaboration with The Business Council fell by 26 points in the second quarter of 2025 to 34, the lowest level since Q4 2022. (A reading below 50 reflects more negative than positive responses.) This was the largest quarter-over-quarter decline in the history of the survey, which started in 1976. A total of 133 CEOs participated in the Q2 survey, which was fielded from May 5 to May 19.
“CEO Confidence collapsed in Q2 2025 after surging in Q1,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators, The Conference Board. “All components of the Measure weakened into pessimism territory. CEOs’ views about current economic conditions led the plunge, registering the largest quarter-on-quarter decline in almost 50 years. Expectations for the future also plummeted, with more than half of CEOs now expecting conditions to worsen over the next six months, both for the economy overall and in their own industries. CEOs’ assessments of current conditions in their own industries—a measure not included in calculating the topline Confidence measure—also fell sharply in Q2. The vast majority of CEOs (83%) said they expect a recession in the next 12-18 months, nearly matching the percentage who feared recession in late 2022 and early 2023. The US–China trade deal announced on May 12 seems to have eased, but not removed, concerns about the future. CEOs responding before and after May 12 reported similar very negative views about the current state of the economy and their own industries. However, the CEOs who responded after May 12 tended to be somewhat less pessimistic about the future and fewer expected a deep recession.”
“CEOs named geopolitical instability, followed by trade and tariffs, as the two top business risks impacting their industry in Q2,” said Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., Vice Chairman of The Business Council and Chair Emeritus of The Conference Board. “Regulatory uncertainty followed close behind, while cyber risks—which dominated CEOs’ concerns over the past two years—dropped down to 4th place. As in previous quarters, a majority of CEOs indicated no revisions to their capital spending plans over the next 12 months. Still, consistent with more pessimism about the outlook in their own industries, the share of CEOs expecting to revise down investment plans doubled in Q2 to 26%, while the share expecting to upgrade investment plans dropped 14 ppts to 19%. These changes were largely driven by those who responded before May 12.”
Most CEOs anticipated no change in the size of their workforce over the next 12 months. This may reflect ongoing labor shortages and/or increased uncertainty. The share of CEOs expecting to expand their workforce fell slightly to 28%—down from 32% in Q1—while the share of CEOs planning to reduce their workforce ticked up 1 ppt to 28%. Meanwhile, more CEOs reported no difficulty finding qualified workers in Q2 versus Q1. The share of CEOs planning to raise wages by 3% or more over the next year fell sharply to 58%–down from 71% in Q1. CEOs who responded before May 12 were on average planning smaller wage increases than those who responded after May 12.
Current Conditions
CEOs’ assessment of general economic conditions collapsed in Q2 2025:
- 82% of CEOs said economic conditions were worse than six months ago, up from just 11% in Q1.
- Only 2% said economic conditions were better, down significantly from 44%.
CEOs’ assessments of conditions in their own industries also flipped to negative in Q2:
- 69% of CEOs said conditions in their own industries were worse than six months ago, up from 22% in Q1.
- Only 7% said conditions in their industries were better, down from 37%.
Future Conditions
CEOs’ expectations about the short-term economic outlook dropped sharply in Q2 after surging last quarter:
- 64% of CEOs expected economic conditions to worsen over the next six months, up from 15% in Q1.
- Only 18% expected economic conditions to improve, down from 56%.
CEOs’ expectations for short-term prospects in their own industries also became far more pessimistic in Q1:
- 51% of CEOs expected conditions in their own industry to worsen over the next six months, up from 14%.
- Just 18% expected conditions in their own industry to improve, down from 52% in Q1.
Employment, Recruiting, Wages, and Capital Spending
Capital Spending: The share revising spending plans down doubled—to 26% in Q2 from 13% in Q1, and the share increasing their spending plans fell to 19% in Q2 from 33% in Q1.
Employment: 44% of CEOs planned to maintain the size of their workforce. The share of CEOs expecting to increase their workforce declined from 32% to 28%, and there was a slight increase in the percentage expecting a net reduction from 27% to 28%.
Hiring Qualified People: Labor shortages continued to ease, with more CEOs reporting no problems hiring.
Wages: A majority of CEOs (53%) planned to increase salaries by 3.0–3.9% over the next 12 months, but those considering wage increases in the 2.0-2.9% range increased from 24% to 34%.
