Brent Crude Climbs Above $111 as US–Iran Conflict Keeps Energy Markets on Edge

Brent crude futures climbed above $111 per barrel on Tuesday, advancing toward levels last seen in March as stalled diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran continued to unsettle global energy markets. The ongoing conflict has intensified concerns over supply disruptions, particularly as flows through the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz remain effectively halted.

According to reports, Donald Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Iran’s latest proposal, with Tehran’s nuclear program remaining a central sticking point in negotiations. The lack of progress has prolonged uncertainty across commodity markets already under strain.

Iran, meanwhile, communicated through Pakistan that hostilities could cease under specific conditions. These include the lifting of the US naval blockade, agreement on a revised framework governing transit through Hormuz, and formal assurances against future military action. However, the gap between both sides appears significant, limiting the likelihood of a near-term resolution.

Now entering its ninth week, the conflict has materially disrupted global energy flows. The International Energy Agency has warned of a potential “unprecedented supply shock,” highlighting the dual risk of constrained supply and weakening demand as geopolitical instability weighs on economic activity.

The Strait of Hormuz—a narrow passage responsible for roughly 20% of global energy consumption—remains a focal point for market participants. With transit flows effectively suspended, upward pressure on oil prices is likely to persist, reinforcing volatility across energy and financial markets.

As geopolitical tensions escalate, the trajectory of oil prices will remain closely tied to diplomatic developments, with investors monitoring any signals that could either restore supply routes or deepen the current disruption.