U.S. corn futures climbed to $5 per bushel on Monday, reaching their highest level since August 2023 as concerns over crop yields strengthened expectations for tighter supplies.
The latest Pro Farmer Crop Tour estimated the national corn yield at 173.2 bushels per acre, well below the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s August forecast of 180.7 bushels per acre.
Based on the tour’s estimates, U.S. corn production would reach approximately 15.344 billion bushels, about 670 million bushels below the government projection.
Yield estimates across all seven states surveyed by Pro Farmer came in below last year’s levels. In Illinois, one of the country’s largest corn-producing states, estimated yields fell to 184.19 bushels per acre from 199.57 a year earlier.
Strong Export Demand Adds Support
Demand is also contributing to the price rally. U.S. corn export commitments are running about 24% above last year’s levels, providing additional support as concerns grow over the size of the upcoming harvest.
Weather conditions remain another important factor. Hot and dry conditions across parts of the U.S. Corn Belt have increased crop stress and raised uncertainty surrounding final yields.
International supply risks are also attracting attention. Adverse weather across parts of Europe and continuing disruptions to Ukrainian grain shipments have added to concerns about global availability.
The combination of lower U.S. yield expectations, strong export demand and international supply uncertainty has pushed corn back to the $5-per-bushel threshold for the first time in three years, putting agricultural commodities back in focus across global markets.
